Introduction Myanmar’s seven-decade civil war did not begin with bullets; it began with a flawed contract. The 1947 Panglong Agreement, while historic, was incomplete, exclusionary, and unenforced. Its promises of equality, autonomy, and federalism were systematically betrayed by successive military regimes. Today, armed resistance is not driven by a love for rebellion but by the necessity to end oppression, forced displacement, and mass atrocities. The only lasting solution is a new Union Accord—a comprehensive, inclusive, and binding political contract that guarantees equality, self-determination, and a federal system while assuring the Bamar majority the integrety of the Union.
The Historical Failures of Panglong
Signed on 12 February 1947, the Panglong Agreement was meant to be the cornerstone of a united Myanmar. Yet it suffered from critical weaknesses:
- Exclusion of Key Groups: Only Shan, Kachin, Chin, and Bamar leaders signed. Rakhine, Mon, Karen, and others were absent. Emerging groups like the Wa, Kokang, and Ta’ang (Palaung) had no framework for inclusion.
- The “Secession Clause” as a Weapon: Article 10’s promise of a “right to secede after 10 years” became a propaganda tool for military rulers to justify centralization and repression. When Shan leaders invoked it in 1958, their demand was dismissed.
- Broken Promises: The 1948 Constitution (Articles 201–202) codified secession rights, but the 1962 coup buried federal aspirations. Decades of military rule turned Panglong into a hollow symbol.
These flaws eroded trust. Panglong is no longer a viable foundation—it is an outdated relic. Rebuilding confidence requires a new accord, not nostalgia.
Why a New Union Accord Is Indispensable
The new union accord must deliver the following non-negotiable guarantees:
| Principle | Required Guarantee |
| Equality | Full participation and equal rights for all ethnic nationalities |
| Self-Determination | Legislative and fiscal autonomy at state/region level |
| Federalism | Clear division of powers between center and states |
| Union Integrity | Collective sovereignty assured with the signing of the accor |
| State Defense | The right to maintain defense forces in the required number in the states and the formation of the Union Army must be clarified and guaranteed. |
| AirForce and Navy | Air defense and naval formations must be clarified and guaranteed to be used only for external defense and emergency relief. |
This accord will achieve multiple strategic outcomes:
- Rapid ethnic unity and coalition-building against the junta.
- Regained international political momentum and broader global support.
- Accelerated overthrow of military rule through unified resistance.
- Minimized post-transition conflicts, paving the way for stable reconstruction.
Warning: Victory Without Unity = New Conflicts
Defeating the junta without a concrete, signed agreement among revolutionary forces risks a dangerous vacuum. History shows what happens next:
- Territorial rivalries: EAOs expanding control zones could spark clashes over borders, resources, and authority.
- Power struggles: Without a shared federal framework, today’s NUG–EAO alliance fractures into competing administrations.
- Bamar backlash: Fear of “disintegration” fuels resistance to ethnic autonomy, reviving old divides.
- Foreign interference: China, Thailand, or India may back rival factions to secure borders and trade routes.
Libya 2011. Yemen 2015. Myanmar cannot afford a third failed transition. A military win without a political contract is not peace—it could be the prelude to a new wave of civil war.
CRPH/NUG’s Federal Charter: Vision Without a Roadmap
The Federal Charter (Parts I & II, 2021) issued by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) and National Unity Government (NUG) correctly identifies the end goal: a federal democratic union. It outlines equality, autonomy, and military reform under civilian control.
But it lacks a process.
- Who signs?
- When and how?
- What enforcement mechanisms exist?
Without a step-by-step implementation ladder, the Charter remains aspirational. The accord-signing process itself must become the ladder—a structured, time-bound political pathway.
Call to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)
Groups like the United League of Arakan (ULA/AA), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO/KIA), UWSA, Karen National Union (KNU/KNLA) and others must not wait passively for NUG concessions.
- Lead proactively: Convert battlefield gains into political leverage to push accord negotiations.
- Address Bamar fears: Explicitly guarantee Union integrity to build cross-ethnic trust by agreeing to sign the accord with international oversight.
- Avoid delays: Focus only on high-priority political and military issues; defer secondary matters.
Conclusion
Today’s revolutionaries do not fight out of addiction to war. They fight because the junta arrests, tortures, and kills with impunity. Their goal is not perpetual conflict but a new Union where all belong.
The new Union Accord is the political endgame. Ethnic unity depends on credible commitments to equality and autonomy. International support grows with ethnic cohesion. Global backing creates the conditions for signing. A trusted accord dismantles militarism at its root.
These elements are interlinked. Delay risks another lost decade.
The time to sign a new union accord is now. History will not forgive hesitation.
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